CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-09-18T12:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-09-18T12:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26974/-1
CME Note: Ear-shaped partial halo CME in the NW (or two CMEs moving in unison), with no clear source found, so it is likely backsided. To support the backsided assumption, there seems to be a faint opening of magnetic field lines/restructuring of magnetic field seemingly far behind the NW limb seen in GOES SUVI 284 around 2023-09-18T12Z. Although there is no clear front-sided source, there seems to be minor flaring in AR 3433 (delayed to a plage) and AR 3429 and there is seems to be a post-eruptive arcade that fills a dark filament channel W centered (N10W50) of AR3439 by 12:55Z. There is also a very minor eruption on the NW limb N of AR 3225(N23W81) starting at in AIA 304. These are very minor coronal signatures though. There are no CME arrival signatures at L1 on September 22-23 and the second half of 21.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-22T11:12Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -248.12 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-10-02T19:19Z
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